Friday, October 9, 2009

CBO Health Care Numbers Will Change

by Ron Spangler

Message to the Democrats and President Obama. Before you count on a victory for the Senate Bill to come under the trillion dollar mark and be deficit neutral you should remember this preliminary cost analysis by CBO will be sure to change.

The cost analysis was done on the summary of the Bill without the true legislative language and is therefore only a preliminary guess at the true cost. A more realistic expectation of the true cost cannot be done until the CBO has the actual language and numbers in the final Bill.

It will be too late by the time the language is given to the CBO for the full Senate to react and vote in accordance with the real numbers. The Democrats have scheduled the vote to take place before the CBO has a chance to crunch the final numbers.

After the bill passes the Senate along party lines then it will go to the House where it will join the other Bills in conference. Behind closed doors the House and Senate Leaders will consolidate the Bills into something that no Congressman or Senator will recognize and it will pass and be signed into law by President Obama. Well after the fact the CBO will analyze the Bill and it will be somewhere between 1 and 2 Trillion Dollars.

By the time President Obama signs this Bill into law we will be facing another crisis bigger than the Health Care issue and our minds will be directed from the signing and ramifications of this new law.

The Health Care issue is coming to an end and we will have this government option fiasco forced down our throats. The results will not be immediately felt by the taxpayer and the Democrats will use it as a win during the next election cycle in 2010. They are betting the economy and job numbers will be better by the summer of 2010 and that will save them from feeling the voters wrath by Nov 2010. They are really betting on a lot of good things happening between now and then. Personally I can't see any of this happening. The unemployment rate in the spring will in all likelihood be over 10 percent but the real number of unemployed will be more like 30 percent.

The second part of President Obama's stimulus package will be released but it will probably be too late to have a real effect. By the summer the government will probably be reporting the unemployment numbers are starting to drop and the economy is rebounding. I doubt that people will buy it but the media will promote it. Will it be enough to divert the attention away from the Health Care Reform Bill that the Congress passed back in 2009, only time will tell. Will the Democrats win on their bet that the voters will forget, again only time will tell.

There are a few things we know for sure, the numbers will change, it will cost over a trillion dollars, it will add to the deficit and illegals will be covered.

Pundits like Bill O'Reilly have a bad habit of saying we have to give President Obama the benefit of the doubt and we have to assume the President is doing this or that and it will in the end benefit America. I don't know if Mr. O'Reilly really believes this or is just trying to get President Obama to come on his show and stop boycotting Fox News. I learned a long time ago what happens when you assume anything in life. Maybe Mr. Reilly should look up the common man's definition of assume.

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